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The Number They Show You Is Not The Number

There are two ways to describe the same result -- one honest, one that sells. Learn the difference between relative risk and absolute risk and you can read almost any health headline.

3 min read

By The Holistic Hub Editorial Collective

Sources listed

Editorial policyEvidence policy

I am a nurse. I spent years reading charts, giving medications, and explaining to families what the numbers meant. It took me a long time to realize how often I was explaining numbers that had already been dressed up before they reached me. Here is the thing almost nobody is taught, including most of us in healthcare.

Two ways to describe the same result

There are two ways to describe the same result. One of them is honest. The other one sells. Say a condition affects 2 people out of 100,000. A study finds something that pushes it to 4 out of 100,000. The headline version: "Doubles your risk." The real version: your risk went from 0.002% to 0.004%.[2] Both are true. One of them makes you afraid. One of them makes you informed.[3] That first number is called relative risk. The second is absolute risk. Relative risk is almost always the bigger, louder number, which is why it is the one that ends up in the headline, the press release, and the ad.

It works in both directions

This works both ways. It is used to make risks look terrifying. It is also used to make treatments look far more powerful than they are. A treatment that "cuts your risk by 50%" might be taking you from 2 in 1,000 down to 1 in 1,000.[1] Real, but small. Worth knowing before you decide anything.

The one question to carry for the rest of your life

So here is the question I want you to carry with you: Out of how many, and compared to what? That one question does more work than anything else I could teach you. Ask it of any health claim. Ask it of a headline. Ask it of a supplement ad. Ask it of me. If somebody cannot answer it, they either do not know their own data, or they are counting on you not asking. Your body, your decision. But you cannot make a real decision on a number that was shaped before it got to you. Measure. Know. Improve.

Key Takeaways

  • Relative risk is the big, loud number ("doubles your risk"); absolute risk is the real one (0.002% to 0.004%). Both can be true.
  • The same trick makes treatments look stronger than they are -- "cuts risk 50%" can mean 2 in 1,000 down to 1 in 1,000.
  • Carry one question everywhere: out of how many, and compared to what?
  • If someone can't answer that, they either don't know their data or are counting on you not asking.

Sources

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  1. 1.How Statistical Deception Created the Appearance That Statins Are Safe and Effective (Expert Rev Clin Pharmacol, 2015)
  2. 2.Increased Risk of Noninfluenza Respiratory Virus Infections Associated With Receipt of Inactivated Influenza Vaccine (Clin Infect Dis, 2012)
  3. 3.The development and evaluation of polygenic risk score reports: a systematized review (Genet Med, 2025)
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There are two honest ways to describe the same result. Relative risk is the loud version, as in doubles your risk. Absolute risk is the one that tells you what it means for you, as in 0.002 percent to 0.004 percent. Both can be true at once, and the same move works in the other direction, so cuts risk 50 percent can mean 2 in 1,000 down to 1 in 1,000.

FAQ

What is the difference between relative risk and absolute risk?

Relative risk compares two groups to each other. Absolute risk tells you the actual chance in a population. A doubling sounds enormous and can still be a move from 0.002 percent to 0.004 percent, and both statements are true.

Why do health headlines sound scarier than the study?

Because the relative number is bigger and easier to write. It is not automatically dishonest, but it leaves out the denominator, which is the part that tells you what the finding means for you.

What question should I ask about any health statistic?

Out of how many, and compared to what. If the person quoting the number cannot answer that, they either do not know their own data or are counting on you not asking.

Does this only make risks look bigger?

No, it runs both ways. A treatment described as cutting risk by 50 percent can be moving 2 in 1,000 to 1 in 1,000, which may still be worth it, but you cannot judge that without the absolute numbers.